Georgia could beat Alabama. Ohio State could beat Michigan

Pitt could beat Clemson (the Panthers have done it before Atlanta Falcons Womens Hoodie , anyway). Things could still get weird at the top of the college football landscape.That said, it’s pretty clear how the 2018 season has defined itself: total stasis at the top, total chaos everywhere else. Week 11 was maybe the most heavily distilled version of this yet: nobody in the top 10 lost, and the projected College Football Playoff didn’t change at all.Beneath the surface, though, oddity reigned. Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West, despite an 0-3 non-conference record, with an upset of Iowa (and with Minnesota’s sudden and total destruction of Purdue). Pitt moved closer to the ACC Coastal title despite a 6-4 record. The Pac-12 South remained extraordinarily messy. There are always total surprises in this ridiculous sport; it’s just that in some years you have to search a little harder to find them.Let’s look back at Week 11 action by looking at the difference between projection and reality. S&P+ had a pretty good week — great from an absolute error standpoint (the difference between projection and result), though an only decent 53 percent against the spread. But whether the numbers are dialed in or not, however, there are always surprises.Using the S&P+ projections as a guide, let’s look at which games played out as expected and which ones very, very much did not.(Rankings listed below are from the most recent CFP rankings.)Right on (projection and reality within 3 points of each other)LSU’s Clyde Edwards-HelairePhoto by Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesFAU 34, WKU 15 (projected margin: FAU by 18.9)Iowa State 28, Baylor 14 (projected margin: ISU by 13.1)Clemson 27, Boston College 7 (projected margin: Clemson by 18.4)UL-Lafayette 36, Georgia State 22 (projected margin: UL by 12.4)Virginia 45, Liberty 24 (projected margin: UVA by 19.2)Utah State 62, SJSU 24 (projected margin: USU by 35.8)Indiana 34, Maryland 32 (projected margin: UM by 0.6)Middle Tennessee 48, UTEP 32 (projected margin: MTSU by 13.4)LSU 24, Arkansas 17 (projected margin: LSU by 9.9)Things got strange in Fayetteville toward the end, but the the overall result wasn’t that disappointing for LSU.Mostly on (3 to 7 points)Nebraska’s JD SpielmanPhoto by Steven Branscombe/Getty ImagesNebraska 54, Illinois 35 (projected margin: NU by 15.7)Miami (Ohio) 30, Ohio 28 (projected margin: Ohio by 1.3)Cincinnati 35, USF 23 (projected margin: Cincy by 8.2)Georgia 27, Auburn 10 (projected margin: UGA by 12.9)EMU 27 Womens Customized Atlanta Falcons Jerseys , Akron 7 (projected margin: EMU by 15.9)Utah 32, Oregon 25 (projected margin: Utah by 11.2)Stanford 48, Oregon State 17 (projected margin: Stanford by 26.7)Florida 35, South Carolina 31 (projected margin: UF by 8.8)Marshall 30, Charlotte 13 (projected margin: Herd by 22.2)Tulane 24, ECU 18 (projected margin: Tulane by 11.8)Notre Dame 42, Florida State 13 (projected margin: ND by 22.9)Alabama 24, Mississippi State 0 (projected margin: Bama by 17.8)Texas A&M 38, Ole Miss 24 (projected margin: A&M by 7.7)Kansas State 21, Kansas 17 (projected margin: KSU by 10.7)Michigan 42, Rutgers 7 (projected margin: UM by 41.9)On Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody this week, I talked about how underrated-ly fun the Nebraska-Illinois game could be, with a surging NU offense and a gorgeous Illinois run game (and two bad defenses). Eighty-nine points and 1,100 yards later, I will claim victory on that one.A little off (7 to 17 points)Northwestern’s Clayton ThorsonPhoto by Matthew Holst/Getty ImagesSMU 62, UConn 50 (projected margin: SMU by 19.5)Louisiana Tech 28, Rice 13 (projected margin: Tech by 23.4)Duke 42, North Carolina 35 (projected margin: Duke by 15.6)UAB 26, Southern Miss 23 (projected margin: UAB by 11.9)Air Force 42, New Mexico 24 (projected margin: AFA by 8.7)Cal 15, USC 14 (projected margin: USC by 8.4)Penn State 22, Wisconsin 10 (projected margin: PSU by 2.5)Appalachian State 38, Texas State 7 (projected margin: App State by 21.3)Memphis 47, Tulsa 21 (projected margin: UM by 16.2)Arizona State 31, UCLA 28 (projected margin: ASU by 13.1)Missouri 33, Vanderbilt 28 (projected margin: Mizzou by 15.5)Buffalo 48, Kent State 14 (projected margin: UB by 10.6)Texas 41 www.falconscheapshops.com , Texas Tech 34 (projected margin: Tech by 3.9)Army 31, Lafayette 13 (projected margin: Army by 29.3)BYU 35, UMass 16 (projected margin: BYU by 7.2)Troy 35, Georgia Southern 21 (projected margin: Troy by 2.1)Georgia Tech 27, Miami 21 (projected margin: Canes by 6.7)Temple 59, Houston 49 (projected margin: UH by 3.0)Washington State 31, Colorado 7 (projected margin: Wazzu by 11.0)Syracuse 54, Louisville 23 (projected margin: Cuse by 16.4)Ohio State 26, Michigan State 6 (projected margin: OSU by 5.1)Oklahoma 48, Oklahoma State 47 (projected margin: OU by 16.5)Boise State 24, Fresno State 17 (projected margin: Fresno by 8.7)Northwestern 14, Iowa 10 (projected margin: Iowa by 11.9)From a numbers standpoint, Northwestern’s run of success this year is unfathomable. The Wildcats get outgained constantly, lost to Akron, etc. But they might also have the strongest identity in the country. They know how they’re going to win games, and it’s won them their first division title.Way off (17-28 points)UNLV’s Lexington ThomasPhoto by Kent Horner/Getty ImagesWake Forest 27, NC State 23 (projected margin: NC State by 13.1)Arkansas State 44, Coastal Carolina (projected margin: ASU by 9.9)UCF 35, Navy 24 (projected margin: UCF by 33.4)NIU 38, Toledo 15 (projected margin: NIU by 0.1)Old Dominion 34, North Texas (projected margin: UNT by 20.3)ULM 38, South Alabama 10 (projected margin: ULM by 4.5)Tennessee 24, Kentucky 7 (projected margin: UK by 7.3)Nevada 49, Colorado State 10 (projected margin: Nevada by 14.6)WVU 47, TCU 10 (projected margin: WVU by 10.4)FIU 45, UTSA 7 (projected margin: FIU by 11.4)UNLV 27, SDSU 24 (projected margin: SDSU by 24.1)S&P+ missed high on UNLV for weeks because it takes a while to account for important injuries (like that of UNLV quarterback Armani Rogers). And then the moment it gives up on the Rebels Atlanta Falcons T-Shirt , they pull a significant upset. Figures.Way, way off (more than 28 points)Minnesota’s Jake PaulsonPhoto by Hannah Foslien/Getty ImagesPitt 52, Virginia Tech 22 (projected margin: VT by 0.3)Minnesota 41, Purdue 10 (projected margin: Purdue by 8.4)What the hell was that, Purdue?? The Philadelphia 76ers have higher expectations now that they’ve added a third All-Star to a playoff roster, but those expectations may have been tapered after a 111-106 loss to the Orlando Magic on Wednesday.The 76ers traded Robert Covington and Dario Saric to the Timberwolves for Jimmy Butler, creating a talented trio along with the young Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. But Philly blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead, allowing the Magic to creep in late and spoil Butler’s first game in a Sixers uniform. Butler’s acquisition was a polarizing one: Many basketball fans either loved the move, heralding Philly’s decision to attempt to win now, or hated it because the blend of personalities on the roster. Game 1 of Butler’s tenure in Philly isn’t a large enough sample size to see how this experiment will work out.Everything you need to know about the Jimmy Butler dramaJimmy Butler wants out of Minnesota. This is how we got here.Winners and Losers from the 76ers-Wolves blockbusterJimmy Butler’s ‘vociferous’ return to Timberwolves practice, explainedThe 7 most savage moments from Jimmy Butler’s interview with Rachel NicholsThe Timberwolves let the Jimmy Butler mess happenJimmy Butler was ruining the Timberwolves’ season, and maybe their futureInside the state of the 76ers before the Jimmy Butler tradeThe 76ers have to figure this thing out on the flyButler addressed a Sixers need in the back court. He gives Philly another playmaker to take pressure off Ben Simmons, one who poses a threat from the perimeter.But teams always take time to adjust after a mid-season trades. Philly’s deal took two starters out and replaced them with one. The Sixers also inserted Wilson Chandler to start at the four. Brett Brown mixed his rotations up early and often. It’s going to take time to figure these players out on the floor.The shot distribution was also all over the place. Simmons only took five shots, Joel Embiid took 20, Butler took 12 and J.J. Redick took 13. The 76ers are best when Simmons is aggressive, but Orlando’s length on the inside limits his game. That should change against other opponents, which should open up tons of opportunity for Butler on the perimeter.We saw good signs, thoughThere were multiple offensive sets where Butler came off of a double Simmons-Embiid screen before making a move. He was active off the ball, scoring his first points as a Sixer off of a backdoor cut, and he didn’t force anything — instead, he just let the game come to him.The Embiid-Simmons-Butler trio is in its infant stage, and a loss to the Magic in their first night out isn’t anything to sweat about. These guys have barely had enough time to practice together. In due time, they’ll build the chemistry good teams need to win games.