Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans: Five bold predictions A

ny time that the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans play it’s fun Color Rush Chidobe Awuzie Jersey , but it’s not a rivalry.Rivalries are about more than it being two elite teams, which the Houston Texans have never been and the Cowboys have struggled to be for some time. Rivalries are about two teams that have exchanged serious blows. They’re pairs that have seen both side head home with their tail tucked, and that just doesn’t exist here. Houston has only won one regular season matchup against the Cowboys, but to be fair it was the game to win as it was the inaugural one way back in 2002. Dallas has won the last three, including the last one in H-Town, and we’re all hoping that they can make it four in a row.What will happen en route to a hopeful victory? That’s what we’re here to discuss, fam. Let’s do a little dance, have a little fun, and basically get down tonight. Time for BTB’s bold predictions.Tavon Austin will have over 100 yards from scrimmageLook. The Dallas Cowboys are going to force-feed Ezekiel Elliott. You know it. I know it. Anybody who’s somebody knows it. If they want to win, last I checked they do, the Dallas Cowboys are going to have to find somebody else to help move the chains and get things going offensively. We’ve seen so far on this young season that somebody with the ability to do that is all-speed man Tavon Austin.It’s a given that Tavon will get at least one jet sweep in the game which will be good for 10-12 yards, hopefully he’ll pick up a big gain through the air at one point, the point is we’re going to add that up and it’s going to be over 100. Deal? Deal.Dallas will have a drive that lasts at least 10 minutesLast week against the Detroit Lions the Cowboys saw their penultimate possession of the game last over eight and a half minutes. That’s absolutely ridiculous.This is an unreal amount of time to possess the ball at any point in the game, but the Cowboys did it in the game’s fourth quarter. Granted Dallas had to ultimately settle for a field goal and that move could have been costly if not for a heroic last-second drive by Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, but the fact remains that they got back to somewhat vintage form with a long possession like that.There’s no denying that this is the recipe to success for the Cowboys. They need to run the ball, run out the clock, and then go play defense with their solid group behind them. Get ready to sit down when the Cowboys are on offense and stay there as they’re going to hit double-digit minutes.Taco Charlton will lead the game in sacksDeMarcus Lawrence is currently the NFL leader in sacks, but unfortunately the Houston Texans are likely aware of this fact (fingers crossed, though).Tim Heitman-USA TODAY SportsThe Texans offensive line is quite bad Color Rush Joe Looney Jersey , in fact it could be the worst assembly across the entire National Football League. That idea coupled with extra attention paid to Tank could amount to a big day in the sack department for Taco Charlton.It really should be noted how well Taco is playing into the second quarter of his second season in Dallas. You’d be hard pressed to find a first-round draft selection who was less popular with Cowboys fans than Charlton, and he’s really rounding into form quite nicely. Considering the Cowboys offensive line is going to give their all in stopping J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, it’s possible for Taco to be the sack king of this contest.Let’s hope Taco rounds all the way into Houston, soft and crunchy style.There will be a fake of some kindLast time the Cowboys were on the road for Sunday Night Football the world saw Chris Jones run a fake punt. The crazy thing is this wasn’t even the first time that Jones caught everyone off guard with a fake, and it wasn’t even the first time that he did it to NBC’s Sunday Night Football!I’m not saying the fake involved in Houston is going to be a punt, I’m only saying Chris Jones is somewhat known for this in this time slot. Either way there are fakes happening all over the place this season in the NFL, it’s time to see one and hopefully have it go our way.The Cowboys defense will get their first interception of the seasonOne of the more unfortunate facts this season is that the Dallas Cowboys are the only team in the NFL to not have an interception while on defense. Womp womp.Not shockingly, this puts the Cowboys last in turnovers. You never want to be here, but this is where we find ourselves and it’s time to start shaking things up. Houston’s Deshaun Watson is a talented quarterback who is going to make this game very difficult for the Cowboys; however, he is also known to turn the ball over a bit. This is the perfect way to cure this little cold we’ve caught (the only thing we’ve caught, apparently).I’ll even take it a step further and describe the interception-to-be. Deshaun Watson is going to scramble, get pressured by the Hot Boyz, the ball will be tipped, and that glorious piece of pigskin will land in the waiting arms of Leighton Vander Esch.Let’s party.Why Dak Prescott should run more and why he should stop throwing to Ezekiel Elliott Over the last few weeks, Daniel Houston, who goes by the handle @CowboysStats on Twitter, has been tearing it up on social media with his look at the 2018 Cowboys through the lens of EPA (Expected Points Added). I started looking at EPA way back in 2010, and my interest in the metric was rekindled by Houston, so today we’re taking an EPA deep dive to understand what’s working for the Cowboys offense and what isn’t.What is EPA?EPA is calculated by taking the expected point value (based on the league average results for that specific down Color Rush Taco Charlton Jersey , distance, and field position) before a play is run, and then subtracting it from the expected point value of after a play is run.The EPA for any given play is a value between -7 and +7. A positive value means the play result contributed positively towards a score, a negative result means the play decreased the team’s odds of scoring. EPA starts with the basic premise that not all yards are created equal. For example, a three-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is much more valuable than a seven-yard gain on 3rd-and-8. Any measure of success must consider the down and distance situation, otherwise you’re firmly in the realm of fantasy football. ESPN explained the concept in a little more detail when they started using EPA back in 2012: “Success rate” (gaining 40% of the necessary yardage on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third and fourth downs) is a term that is being used with increasing frequency by NFL observers and probably even some teams. That’s laudable for a sport where a Super Bowl-winning coach can say things like “Stats are for losers. Final scores are for winners,” and still be taken seriously in 2018 by beer-bellied sportswriters who still think it’s 1975.But relying on success rate leads teams to focus on maximizing success rather than maximizing the likelihood of scoring - which EPA focuses on. For example, on 2nd-and-short, EPA suggests teams should probably be throwing down the field. But in many cases they do not, preferring instead to run the ball and thereby improving their success rate and not necessarily their likelihood of scoring.Points, Not YardsUsing EPA (courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com), I can tell you exactly what each play so far in 2018 was worth. The highest value non-TD pass? Dak Beasley’s 16-yard reception on 4th-and-3 in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks. EPA: 4.36The most costly turnover? Dak Prescott’s sack and fumble in the fourth quarter against the Panthers. EPV: - 4.09The highest value run? Prescott’s conversion on 4th-and-1 in the fourth quarter against the Giants. EPV: 2.45Most costly play allowed? Russell Wilson’s 52-yard TD pass on 3rd-and-9 to Tyler Lockett that put the Seahawks up 14-3. EPV: -6.04Highest value defensive play? Damien Wilson’s sack of Eli Manning and subsequent fumble recovery by Taco Charlton. EPV: 4.832018 EPAEarlier this week, Daniel Houston published the cumulative EPA for the Cowboys offense over the first three weeks:Inspired by Houston’s efforts, I decided to take a look at the 2018 EPA for the Cowboys’ offensive personnel, but instead of looking at the cumulative numbers, I chose to look at the EPA per play for the first three games.Before we look at the specific results of those games, keep in mind that three games is stilla small sample to work with, and if a guy was targeted twice in the passing game but did not catch any of the passes http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-antwaun-woods-jersey , he’s bound to have a negative EPA, while a guy who catches a 64-yard touchdown pass is almost certain to have a great EPA. But even with that caveat, it’s still interesting to look at the EPA results so far, and we’ll start with the ground game.Dallas Cowboys running game EPAIncluding turnovers on running plays, the total EPA for the Cowboys’ ground game adds up to 14.49 on 63 runs (excluding three QB kneels, three plays negated by penalty, and one two-point conversion). That’s an EPA of 0.23 per run, which makes the Cowboys ground game marginally positive. Here’s how that breaks down per player:For the ground game, the data here suggests that Dak Prescott should run more; per EPA, he’s averaging almost a point per run. That’s sensational. The Cowboys would be well-advised to add more plays designed for a QB run.What’s true for Prescott is also true for Tavon Austin: the Cowboys will improve their likelihood of scoring if they give him more touches. Dave Halprin brought up both those ideas in an earlier post this week.But what’s up with Ezekiel Elliott? At first glance it doesn’t look like he (and by extension the entire run game) is contributing much in terms of points added. But after three games, Elliott leads the NFL in rushing, as my good friend ScarletO points out below, so how does that mesh?Part of the reason for Elliott’s low EPA value is that in terms of EPA, the average combined value of runs for most of the field is close to zero. Here’s why: a first-down play needs at least four yards to be break-even in terms of EPV, and in the NFL this year 54% of runs (653/1215) on 1st-and-10 gained less than four yards. So if you’re in a situation where half your runs have a negative EPA and the other half has a positive EPA, your total running EPA should be at or around the zero mark. So Elliott isn’t doing that badly with a 0.1 overall EPA/play.But there’s another reason for Elliott’s low EPA, and that has to do with how the Cowboys are using him. Here’s a look at his EPA values by down-and-distance clusters (excluding his fumble against the Seahawks): With an EPA/run of 0.2, Elliott is delivering above average points on the ground in 1st-and-10 and 2nd/3rd-and-short situations.Todd Gurley of the 3-0 Rams for example has an overall EPA/run of 0.1, and EPA/run on 1st-and-10 just above zero.Saquon Barkley of the Giants has an overall EPA/run of 0.1 Color Rush Brett Maher Jersey , and a -0.1 EPA/run on 1st-and-10.Adrian Peterson, now in Washington, has an overall EPA/run of just below zero and an EPA/run on 1st-and-10 of just below zero.But what’s not working for Elliott are 2nd/3rd and long situations, where he has a -0.1 EPA/run on 12 runs. Of those 12 runs, one was on 2nd-and-6, one was on 2nd-and-9, all others were in 2nd/3rd down situations with 10-or-more yards to go. Why would the Cowboys choose to run and not pass in those situations? Ultimately, the Cowboys should look for ways to get more out of Ezekiel Elliott on the ground; right now he’s a little above league average, at least according to EPA. San Francisco’s Matt Breida, who co-leads the NFL in rushing yards with Elliott, has an EPA/run of 0.4. That’s where Elliott should be. Dallas Cowboys passing game EPASame exercise for the receivers, though we’ll change up things a little by first only looking at their EPA per reception (table excludes players with less than three targets). The data here is pretty straightforward. The Cowboys have three tiers of receivers.Tier 1: Austin, Beasley, and Hurns all add more than one EPA point per reception.Tier 2: Gallup, Thompson, and Williams average about half the value of the Tier 1 guys per reception.Tier 3: Swaim and Elliott do not improve the team’s likelihood of scoring when they catch the ball. This should have all sorts of alarm bells going off at The Star in Frisco.But looking only at receptions results in an inflated EPA. Which is why we need to include the number of targets for each wide receiver, even if an incompletion is not always the fault of the receiver. In the passing game, Tavon Austin looks great thanks in part to his 64-yard TD reception, but he’s not going to repeat that every game. What’s more interesting to look at are the high-volume targets like Cole Beasley (above average) http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-la_el-collins-jersey , Deonte Thompson (average), Ezekiel Elliott and Geoff Swaim (both below average). Cole Beasley is one of the few bright spots in the passing game. What’s interesting here is that Beasley is not a good 1st-down target, delivering 0.0 EPA/play on his six 1st-down targets. But on his ten targets on 2nd/3rd/4th down, he’s averaging 1.1 EPA/play. Deonte Thompson looks average at first, but his numbers are hurt by a failed 4th-and-10 conversion against the Panthers. Excluding that one play, Thompson’s EPA/play doubles to 0.4. Also, he’s a good alternative to Beasley on 1st downs, averaging 0.5 EPA/play there.Geoff Swaim should not be targeted in the passing game. Every pass thrown his way loses the Cowboys 0.4 points. In fact, the Cowboys should avoid throwing to their TEs altogether. Including Blake Jarwin and Rico Gathers, Prescott has targeted his TEs 15 times and averaged -0.7 EPA/play.Ezekiel Elliott is not currently a viable option in the passing game. 18 targets with -0.5 EPA/play is a sure way to end up punting on a lot of drives. Elliott is clearly not an efficient part of the passing game yet. Also, it doesn’t help that he’s Checkdown Charlie on 3rd-and-long.The Cowboys still have a lot to fix on their offense, and making Elliott a more effective part of the offense is one of the key tasks. Perhaps Elliott’s been hampered by his lack of preseason action, and he’ll round into form in the next few games. But if he doesn’t, then the offense is in big trouble. The data here also suggests the Cowboys need a receiving tight end much more than they need an extra safety, and if I were in the Cowboys’ front office, I’d trade for a tight end immediately. Which means they won’t.Other To Dos:If you need a TE to help you block, use a tackle instead. If you need a TE to run a pass route, use a WR instead (Hint: you have enough of those). Make Tavon Austin the star of this offense. The Dak-to-Cole connection is fixed. Use it.Don’t throw to Zeke.Listen to Joey Ickes www.nflshopoutlet.com/cincinnati-bengals